Report: European fibre targets “on track”
April 19, 2023
As part of the programme of the FTTH Conference 2023 in Madrid, the FTTH Council Europe has revealed several market reports outlining the latest figures on fibre deployment trends in Europe: the FTTH/B Market Panorama 2023, the FTTH/B Global Ranking 2023, the FTTH/B Forecasts for 2023-2028, and the updated report on FTTH/B in Rural Areas, prepared by IDATE. All reports are based on the latest available data from September 2022. The reports confirm the positive trend of fibre rollouts across Europe, with full-fibre connectivity being a clear priority for EU authorities, national governments, and market players across Europe.
In addition to the above-mentioned market reports, the FTTH Council Europe officially launched its new FTTH/B Investments Tracker report, an initiative of the Investors Committee powered by Macquarie Group Limited, and revamped editions of the FTTH HandbookandIn-Home Broadband Excellence Guide.
“The most recent market figures show that we are on the right track to achieve the ambitious connectivity targets set by the European Commission for 2030. However, the data demonstrate that efforts are still required to convince subscribers to choose fibre. Take-up rates are too low in many countries and demand drivers are multiple and complex, and require attention from policymakers as well as service providers”, said Eric Festraets, President of the FTTH Council Europe. “We rely on policymakers to support the rollout in areas where there is no viable commercial business case and encourage governments and regulators to keep on creating an environment which is favourable to healthy competition and attractive for private investors”.
FTTH/B Market Panorama 2023
The total number of homes passed with Fibre to the Home (FTTH) and Fibre to the Building (FTTB) in the EU39 reached 219 million homes in September 2022, compared to nearly 198,4 million in September 2021.
The main movers in terms of homes passed in absolute numbers are the United Kingdom (+4.2 million), France (+3.5 million), Turkey (+2.9 million) and Italy (+2.1 million).
The top 5 of the annual growth rates in terms of homes passed is headed by Belgium (+60 per cent), the UK (+51 per cent), Serbia (+40 per cent), The Netherlands (+34.7 per cent), and Greece (+34.5 per cent). FTTH/B coverage rate in EU39 now amounts to 62.2 per cent (up by 5 percentage points vs 2021) and coverage rate in the EU27+UK officially surpasses half of total homes – 55,1 per cent (vs 48.5 per cent from 2021). These data re-confirm the continuous upward trend observed for several years in a row now.
The number of FTTH and FTTB subscribers in EU39 region reached 108 million. The 5 fastest growing markets in terms of new subscribers were France (+3.3 million), UK (+1.5 million), Spain (+1.1 million), Turkey (+898) and Italy (+822).
By September 2022, the EU39 FTTH/B take-up rate raised to 49.5 per cent (up by 1 per cent from the previous year). A clear indication that, despite the progress being made, there is still a huge gap between fibre coverage and adoption, as demonstrated by the even slower progress in the EU27+UK, where the take-up rate only grew up by 0,4 per cent (reaching 52.8 per cent).
Overall, the report observes an increasing contribution from incumbent operators to FTTH/B coverage figures, with around 56 per cent of the total homes in the EU39 being passed by alternative ISPs and around 39 per cent by the incumbent ISPs, and the remaining 4 per cent being municipalities/utilities. Alternative operators’ initiatives are still dominant, but incumbents are now closing the gap.
In terms of the homes still to be covered, Germany, UK, and Italy are the countries with the most work left to be done: altogether, 89 million homes are still not connected to FTTH/B networks, accounting for 55 per cent of the total EU27 household without a subscription.
FTTH/B Global Ranking 2023
An initiative of the FTTH Councils Global Alliance, the report analyses FTTH/B penetration rates across the globe. The data from September 2022 show that 22 countries have achieved penetration rates higher than 50 per cent. The UAE leads the ranking with 98.1 per cent, while Qatar rapidly caught up reaching the second position at 97.8 per cent (vs 84 per cent from the previous year). Singapore (96.5 per cent), Hong Kong (91.6 per cent), and China (89.4 per cent) complete the top 5 positions.
In the European region, for the fourth consecutive year in a row, Iceland tops the European FTTH/B penetration ranking with a 76.8 per cent penetration rate. It is followed by Spain (73.5 per cent) and Portugal (71.1 per cent). 7 countries passed the 50 per cent penetration rate mark (Iceland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Norway, Romania, France).
FTTH/B Forecasts for Europe 2023-2028
The market forecasts are consistent with the previous estimates and in line with the conclusions of the FTTH/B Market Panorama. The data foresee around 211 million homes passed for FTTH/B in 2028 in EU27+UK and 308 million homes passed in the EU39 region. It is expected that the top 3 countries in terms of homes passed will be Germany (33.5 million), France (33.2 million), and UK (30.7 million).
According to the forecasts, the number of subscribers is expected to reach 137 million in EU27+UK and 196 million in EU39 region, with take-up rates experiencing steady growth in both regions.
On the technology side, the data report a significant trend whereby PON is gradually but clearly prevailing over point-to-point fibre, as a consequence of the progress of PON technologies on one side, and the strong focus on power consumption and sustainability on the other.
FTTH/B in Rural Areas 2023
The report shows that by September 2022, only 41 per cent of rural inhabitants could enjoy capabilities offered by full-fibre connectivity (compared to the average number of 56 per cent of European households in the EU27+UK region that are covered by FTTH/B networks). The five countries with the highest Rural FTTH/B coverage are Denmark (86 per cent), Romania (83 per cent), Latvia (77 per cent Spain (74 per cent), and Portugal (70 per cent). The report emphasizes that the coverage of rural areas in EU27+UK is growing steadily and at an even increasing pace compared to non-rural regions; a clear indication that the focus of policy and regulation initiatives is shifting towards the sub-urban and rural areas.
Overview of fibre financing transactions in selected European countries
Financing fiber optics is becoming more difficult. Investors and entrepreneurs need guidance. To this end, the FTTH Council Europe’s Investors Committee, supported by Macquarie, has put together and launched this first-of-its-kind overview of fibre financing transactions in selected European countries. This includes current trends, risk factors that are currently in focus, and country-specific lists of transactions we have seen in the market. Where this information is public, these lists include financing volume, banks involved, financial and legal advisors, and expansion targets. The Investors Committee will update the information twice a year.